印度拟议的外国直接投资政策将对印度经济产生积极和消极的变化。虽然阴暗面仍然被政治家们所忽视,但在采取立场之前,有必要了解争论的双方。据悉,外国直接投资政策的特点是,外国公司的外资股权为51%,国内公司的外资股权为49%,总投资至少为1亿美元,其中一半投资于后端基础设施,并在人口超过100万的地区引入。在这里,我觉得这些功能本身会带来一些改变,从而促进游戏的大规模销售;不允许生产者从拟议的政策中接触到人口的所有部分。
萨卡尔将印度引入外国直接投资政策比作西方的工业革命,他表示,“就技术进步而言,短期和长期之间存在权衡”。Sarkar认为,在印度实施FDI政策将会带来一定的消极和积极的变化。巨大的投资将导致引进一种改进的存储技术,这将彻底改变印度的存储设施,并随后减少浪费。因此,统计数据中51%的粮食在超市腐烂将大大减少,避免浪费。这也将在很大程度上改善印度的供应变化。在我看来,这在一定程度上是正确的,政府不应依赖外国直接投资来实施足够的储存设施。相反,在没有任何外国投资的情况下,政府必须采取措施,确保国内有充足的适当储存设施。另一方面,由于设备齐全的储存设施的影响;生产现有技术的公司将不得不关闭。市场将充斥着死货,现在公司的成本将超过收入,迫使他们倒闭。此外,由于小型基拉纳商店将无法获得如此庞大的技术,他们将处于亏损状态。例如:奶酪、松软干酪等奶制品;等可以在零售商店比在当地的基拉纳商店存放更长的时间。在这种情况下,我认为允许国际贸易商如此多的支配将导致这些公司成为垄断者,大量资本和技术集中在他们手中。因此,我认为制定外国直接投资政策时应考虑到这种情况。此外,在国际公司通过加大投资主宰印度市场的情况下,政府必须进行干预。
外商直接投资将带来连接国际和国内市场的合资企业,使贸易更加顺畅。本地贸易商和国际贸易商之间的互动将会增加。套利将在印度市场占据主导地位,因此,来自世界各地的廉价商品将在市场上浮动。萨卡尔说:“随着廉价制成品进口超过不确定的农产品出口,经常账户可能会随着时间的推移而恶化。”当本国货币贬值时,本币走强的贸易国对本国经济是危险的。在印度这样的国家,这种变化会更明显,因为印度的货币汇率低于美元或英镑。印度的国际收支将陷入困境。但是,忽略这一变化的负面影响,这将意味着外国直接投资政策将增加国内市场的竞争,并带来创新的空间。Swaminathan S Ankalesria Aiyar认为,“这些(政策)不断创造新的赢家,战胜新的输家。”因此,国内贸易商和资本家会很高兴,因为他们可以获得国际贸易商投入的巨额资本。 The conditions of factories and go downs in India will improve and production will rise substantially because the international trader has greater access to capital. At this point, I feel that we will be making the international counterpart more dominant in the Indian market giving him powers to rule the market just by the virtue that he has greater share in the firm. We will end up concentrating too much power in his hands giving rise to exploitation. But, the international partner can, on the other hand, get access to resources and infrastructure in India. Hence, such firms will be able to produce at a lesser rate and earn greater margin of profit. For eg: Fast food outlets like Mc-Donald, KFC; etc are setting up outlets in India where land and labour is relatively cheaper. Hence, they can earn profits due to their low fixed and variable costs and commercial economies of scale. By claiming this, again, we would be neglecting the fact that small scale industries or unorganized sectors will lose out because of this. Since, international companies will flood Indian markets, the unorganized sector will lose out. For eg: Gradually, the local vada-pav will be costlier than a Mc-Donald burger because Mc-Donald will be in a position to reduce prices unlike the local vendor. Similarly, in the rural set up, big farmers and medium sized farmers will be able to afford infrastructure like tractors, machines, farming equipments; etc which will facilitate them in producing better products for the international firms. But, the small farmers who hardly have land holdings won’t be able to match up with the scale of production compared to the other big farmers. Companies will not invest in small farmers owing to a loss and thus, small time farmers won’t have access to upgraded and well equipped technology. Since, majority of India’s population depends on agriculture for sustainability, a rise in agro prices because of excessive demand domestically, will lead to lesser production and more self-consumption for the local farmer. Somewhere down the line, the international traders will opt for sales maximizations first, thus reducing their prices and making their products affordable for the whole class of the population. These firms would easily be able to adopt such policies because the amount of capital they would invest in the firm would be much higher than the small farmer. Thus, the enterprise could easily gain from economies of scale and thus, invest the gained revenue towards marketing cost; thus attracting consumers to shift. For eg: Even today, big supermarkets like Hypercity, D-mart; etc sell onions at Rs 23 per kg; while the local vendors sell them at Rs 30 per kg because of the commercial economies of scale. Therefore, the rate of sale by the international firm and the domestic farmer will differ considerably.
根据拟议的政策以及国内和国际贸易商之间的合同,国际贸易商将向农民提供较低的利率,以提高其当地农产品的产量并将其出售给国际贸易商;而不是依赖他通常面临的剥削,因为中间人。这将给大大小小的农民一个增加产量的动力。然而,在印度进行贸易的公司将把利润最大化作为主要战略,并开始将资本转移到需求缺乏弹性的地区。如果这只在城市空间中可行,那么城市地区将受到生态威胁,巨大的建筑、购物中心和住宅空间将挤占有限的空间。根据Swaminathan S Anklesria Aiyar的说法,“没有高速公路、电力、港口和机场、铁路连接和管道,工业和服务业就无法扩张。”他还认为,“铁路票价已经上调,柴油价格将每月上涨,直到隐性补贴消失,液化石油气(LPG)连接上限已经设定,外国投资者对一般反避税措施的担忧已经缓解。”因此,这些投资加起来就是企业的总成本和对生态的妥协。2012年9月,印度前八大城市的购物中心零售面积为6470万平方英尺,其中70%以上是在过去五年里增加的。预计五年内将增加约2800万平方英尺的零售空间。 Despite the high vacancy level (18%) in the malls, the Delhi-National Capital Region would have an additional 10 million sq ft space by 2016, according to property consultant Cushman & Wakefield India. Thus, a lot of space will have to be diverted towards the implementation of the FDI policy. Foreign capital will be brought to India to ensure growth and profitability of the internationals and not development for the domestic. Demand will drive price giving complete power to the international trader to control the market. Small and local firms will be nowhere close to the competition of international traders, and such firms would slowly shut down.
因此,我们可以说,我们的制度存在缺陷,阻碍了外国直接投资政策在印度的适当塑造。因此,比起外国直接投资,我们的制度更需要转型。该政策的适当实施以及在拟议政策范围内防止剥削的适当措施将确保印度的增长和发展。因此,必须采取措施发展和加强我国的PDS制度。国内基础设施和当地贸易必须足够强大,能够与对外贸易竞争。必须通过适当的保护政策来实施防止国际公司通过资本和基础设施垄断的保护政策。虽然,在短期内我们可能会面临一些牺牲;但从长远来看,如果将变化转化为政策的积极和优势,FDI政策肯定会确保增长。